Here are 34 races to watch in the Texas midterms

Typically a blockbuster attraction, the governor’s race this year has been a snoozer, unfolding in the shadow of the nationally watched U.S. Senate race. Valdez is running as a scrappy champion of the working class, while Abbott is mostly ignoring her as he boasts of how the quality of life in Texas has progressed under his leadership. As Election Day gets closer, watch for how Abbott uses his massive political operation to help down-ballot candidates who are in much more competitive races than he is.

This is by far the most competitive statewide race this cycle — and the most closely watched beyond Texas. O’Rourke is running a massively funded campaign against Cruz, traveling the state relentlessly in hopes of becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas in over two decades. Cruz, meanwhile, is attacking O’Rourke as too liberal for Texas while warning the GOP base not to underestimate the intense enthusiasm on the other side in November.

In deep-red Texas, Patrick is the favorite to keep his seat. To win, Collier is relying heavily on Democratic enthusiasm and hoping to siphon off Republican support from Patrick, who drew 76 percent of the vote in March against a more moderate primary challenger. Collier is particularly focused on courting working and retired teachers.

Most of Paxton’s first term has been clouded by his indictment three years ago in a securities fraud case. Nelson has seized on it to portray the race as “integrity vs. indictment.” Despite those legal troubles, Paxton has still managed to emerge as one of President Donald Trump’s closest allies among attorneys general, going to bat for a slew of Trump policies. More recently, Paxton has led the charge to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, giving Nelson the perfect foil on an issue where Democrats believe they have the upper hand this cycle: health care.

Miller has received several high-profile endorsements, but his first term has been riddled with controversies. Olson served in the Air Force for 25 years and was one of the military branch's first female pilots. But the circumstances of her retirement from the military — she was accused by the Pentagon of steering government contracts to a private security firm — has become a campaign issue. While every statewide Democrat faces an uphill battle this year, experts from both parties say that Olson stands as good a chance as any of managing an upset thanks to Miller's many missteps, which have incited the ire of even staunchly conservative groups that otherwise share his political beliefs.

The race to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Ted Poe, R-Houston, has recently drawn the attention of national Democrats, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee adding TX-02 to its “Red to Blue” program. Crenshaw, a decorated veteran and Harvard Law alum, has the endorsement of the prestigious With Honor PAC, which supports veterans running for office across the country, and U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas. The Houston-area seat hasn’t had a competitive race since Poe first won it in 2004, but Litton has managed to elevate his profile in part through his strong fundraising. Donald Trump won the seat by nine points in 2016, 18 points less than Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.

This seat has been held since 1985 by retiring Republican Joe Barton, who rarely struggled to get re-elected. Wright coasted through his primary with strong name identification as the current Tarrant County tax assessor-collector and a former member of the Arlington City Council. However, his fundraising was weak compared to Sanchez, who outraised him in aggregate per the most recent fundraising reports. Her organization could put this seat in play — but it will be a very steep climb.

The region that formed the foundation of the Bush family’s political power is now up for grabs. Suburban women turned hard against Donald Trump here in 2016, and Democrats are seizing the opportunity. Culberson was rusty off the mark but has modernized his organization. He also holds a key seat on the House Appropriations Committee, a crucial post for a congressman with a district still recovering from Hurricane Harvey. Even so, Fletcher, who is running hard on her Houston roots, had the financial advantage in the latest fundraising reports and is running a robust ground operation.

McCaul hasn’t faced a serious general election threat since he was first elected in 2004. Siegel is counting in part on excitement for Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz to help him in a historically red seat that stretches from Austin to Houston. But McCaul, a powerful chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, is sitting on piles of money. Siegel is running an unabashedly liberal campaign. He supports the Medicare-for-all health care plan of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and told The Texas Tribune he wouldn’t rule out supporting U.S. Rep. Nancy Pelosi for House Speaker if Democrats win control of the House.

Kopser and Roy are vying to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Lamar Smith, R-San Antonio, in a race that national Democrats see as winnable but not their top priority in Texas. With his business and military background, Kopser can appeal to crossover voters — an advantage Roy is working to undermine, arguing his opponent is anything but the moderate he presents himself as.

Olson won re-election by 19 points in 2016, while Donald Trump won the district by eight. But the district is rapidly diversifying, particularly in Fort Bend County, where more than half the district’s residents live and where Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Kulkarni’s campaign is focusing much of its efforts on boosting turnout in these low-participation communities in order to create a viable path to beating Olson.

The 23rd District is the only true swing district in Texas, and the race for it is always an expensive, action-packed affair. Even as Hillary Clinton carried the district in 2016, Hurd was able to hold on to it, prevailing in a grudge match against Democratic predecessor Pete Gallego. Now, Hurd faces Jones, who is intent on undercutting his independent image in the age of President Donald Trump.

Williams has cruised to re-election since first winning his seat in 2012. But five Democrats competed in this year’s primaries to take him on with the hope that the district, which stretches from Austin almost to Fort Worth, may be susceptible to a possible “blue wave.” Oliver is running a very liberal campaign — she's come out in support of Medicare for all and a ban on the sale of assault weapons — which has drawn the endorsement of U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.

This is historically a deeply conservative region that surrounds the Austin suburbs and reaches north to Fort Hood. Carter has never faced a well-organized Democratic challenger, so he has spent the last several months getting his political operation up and running. Meanwhile, Hegar, a decorated veteran from her service in Afghanistan as a helicopter rescue pilot, has proven to be a fundraising powerhouse and is putting that money toward a heavy rotation of television advertising in hopes of changing the makeup of the electorate.

Sessions, whose last seriously competitive general election campaign was in 2004, is increasingly viewed as the most vulnerable Texas member of Congress this cycle. It's a striking change, prompted in part by Hillary Clinton narrowly carrying this district in 2016, a year Sessions didn’t even draw a Democratic challenger. Allred’s strong fundraising, plus his background as a local football hero who went on to work for the Obama administration, has given Democrats hope that this seat centered in blue Dallas might finally flip.

This is regarded as the most competitive Texas Senate district in the state. In 2014, Burton, a Colleyville Republican, flipped the seat, previously held by Democrat Wendy Davis with 53 percent of the vote. Two years later, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the district by only half a percentage point. Powell, a former president of the Burleson ISD school board and former chair of the Texas Wesleyan Board of Trustees, has been unable to match Burton’s fundraising but has been not far behind.

Huffines didn’t even face a general election opponent when he was first elected in 2014. Four years later, the Dallas Republican is widely considered the second-most vulnerable Republican in the Texas Senate — largely because Hillary Clinton edged out Donald Trump in the district by 4.6 percentage points in 2016. Johnson is unlikely to match Huffines’ financial resources but is drawing support from local Democrats and groups like Texas Parent PAC.

This Houston-area senate district stretches from Sugar Land to Freeport and is one of three held by a Republican that could flip this year based on recent voting history. Huffman, who has represented the district for a decade, chairs the powerful State Affairs committee and is vice-chair of the Criminal Justice committee. She has also far outraised Lucido. But Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton here by less than a percentage point in 2016, drawing the attention of Democrats this cycle.

In a Texas House district where no Democrat filed, Katz, a rabbi in Tyler, launched a rare bid to run as an independent earlier this year. He’s facing off with Schaefer, who has served in the House since 2013 and chairs the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus. Katz out raised Schaefer in the first half of the year, but it could be an indication that Schaefer, who trounced his primary opponent in March, doesn’t think he needs to spend significantly to win this fight.

Herrero was first elected to this seat in 2004 — nearly a decade before Chris Hale moved to Texas. But in this swing district – Democrat Wendy Davis and Republican Greg Abbott tied there in 2014 — Hale, who has framed himself as an unwavering conservative, has a shot at an upset. Herrero, however, retains an enormous financial advantage.

Lozano, a Kingsville native, was first elected in 2010 as a Democrat and then re-elected in subsequent elections as a Republican. He won his last two elections by more than 20 percentage points and Donald Trump won it by almost 10 percentage points in 2016. While Torres Miller winning this seat would be something of an upset, she has drawn some attention to her candidacy for her work as a lawyer representing migrant families separated at the border by the Trump administration.

If November's "blue wave" turns out to be a trickle, Workman still could end up swept away by it. The three-term Austin Republican is the only member of his party representing liberal Travis County and has been known to fight against his city’s “socialist” policies. As the suburban district has turned increasingly purple — Donald Trump won there by fewer than 200 votes — Democrats are pinning their hopes on Goodwin, a real estate broker. Though she outraised four other candidates in her primary and decisively won her runoff, Workman has still shown a significant fundraising advantage over her in the general.

After Republican Larry Gonzalez declined to run for re-election in this purple district in the Austin exurbs, a tight race emerged between two political newcomers. Whoever wins will be a demographic rarity in the House: Flores, who’s been endorsed by both Gonzalez and Gov. Greg Abbott, would become one of just a handful of Hispanic Republicans in the lower chamber. Talarico, an education-focused native of the district, would enter a chamber that currently has just six white Democrats.

This is one of multiple Dallas-area races on the radar of political observers as a potential pickup for Democrats. The district is purple — Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump there by 10 points two years after Greg Abbott defeated Wendy Davis there by the same margin. Koop, who has served in the House since 2015, is hardly mentioning Ramos on the campaign trail, while Ramos is making efforts to tie Koop to Trump. "More air pollution..." Ramos wrote in a Sept. 11 Facebook post. "Trump's policy is Linda Koop's policy!”

This will be Anderson and Meza’s second time competing against one another at the ballot box. In 2016, Anderson edged out Meza for the seat by just 64 votes. Meza is betting on strong Democratic turnout this time around as well as better name recognition due to her previous run. Anderson, meanwhile, is touting his conservative credentials and the on-the-ground work he’s done to connect with voters in HD-105.

Neave unseated Republican state Rep. Kenneth Sheets in 2016 with a margin of less than 1,000 votes. The question for Metzger — a conservative candidate with support from the hardline group Empower Texans — is whether she’s the right kind of Republican to win over this swing district. Last year, Neave was charged with driving while intoxicated and pleaded no contest. Metzger has said “voters want someone in the House who will follow the laws they help write.”

Hillary Clinton had a six-percentage-point advantage over Donald Trump in this Republican-held district in 2016, putting it high on Democrats’ radar this year. Meyer, who’s held the seat since 2015, has a healthy fundraising advantage. Both candidates have so far been more civil than some in other nearby competitions.

This North Texas district sent Sunnyvale Republican Cindy Burkett to the Texas House for four terms, but she is not running for re-election. Boos and Bowers each tried to unseat Burkett in 2016. Both lost by about 11 points. While Boos has a clear fundraising advantage, the district favored Hillary Clinton by 2 points in 2016. Also, Bowers could benefit this year from a “blue wave” that may be especially favorable to black female Democrats, several of whom have fielded upsets in primaries across the country this year.

Ryan got to the general election for this Dallas-based district by beating incumbent Republican state Rep. Jason Villalba, who has called Ryan too conservative for a district where Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in 2016, in a tense primary. Turner, the son of former U.S. Rep. Jim Turner, D-Crockett, has been working to appeal to both Democrats and moderate Republicans, drawing some notable endorsements from local business leaders and organizations that have previously backed Republicans. Yet Ryan has led in fundraising, and Republican leaders are intent on holding on to the seat.

This is a top target for Democrats this election cycle. For one, it's one of a number of seats in the Dallas area that went to Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in 2016. Rinaldi himself pulled out a razor-thin victory against his Democratic opponent that year. Johnson, meanwhile, has checked off at least two boxes that make her a competitive candidate: She has had impressive fundraising hauls and has picked up notable endorsements — including one from a former GOP lawmaker who once held the HD-115 seat. Rinaldi, for his part, has big support from Texas groups aligned with the more conservative wing of the GOP.

On paper, this district, covering southwest San Antonio and western Bexar County, is the most competitive state House district in Texas. Yet little has been heard this cycle from Cortez’s challenger, Berlanga, who has raised little money for this bid. A classic swing district, the average distance between the Republican and Democratic candidates in the 2014 and 2016 elections was less than one percentage point. Cortez first won the seat in 2012 only to be ousted two years later, and then won it back in 2016 with barely over 51 percent of the vote.

Appealing to swing voters in this well-educated, affluent Houston district will be key to victory. Republican incumbent Sarah Davis, who has represented the district since 2011, identifies as a “rowdy moderate.” She supports same-sex marriage and is the only Republican in the Texas House that supports access to abortion. Davis’ Republican primary drew statewide attention for Gov. Greg Abbott’s aggressive, and ultimately unsuccessful, effort to back her primary challenger, Susanna Dokupil. But Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump here in 2016, drawing the attention of Democrats, including Sawyer, a political newcomer and entrepreneur who believes the district is ready to flip.

This is the second time Dale and Bucy are facing off in this district, which encompasses Cedar Park, North Austin, Leander and part of Round Rock — in 2014, Dale beat Bucy by 13 percentage points. Since then, Bucy has boosted his name identification among local Democrats. He previously served as chair of the Williamson County Democratic Party, helping a handful of Democrats get elected to local office. However, Dale is standing firm that his legislative experience and past work in city government can hold off Bucy in the district, despite Hillary Clinton winning there in 2016.

This is one of the few state House seats held by a Democrat that’s seen as potentially vulnerable in the midterms. This district, based in the southeastern suburbs of Houston, has had a purple voting history in recent years. In 2014, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott beat Wendy Davis here in 2014, and Perez, then in her first term, lost re-election in an incredibly tight race. In 2016, however, the district backed Democrat Hillary Clinton for president and Perez reclaimed the seat with more than 60 percent of the vote.