Texas 2018 Hotlist: The most competitive races in this year’s election

Between statewide races and those for seats in Congress and the Texas Legislature, there are 215 races on the 2018 Democratic and Republican primary ballots. Which ones are on my short list this week?

For this highly subjective, recurring list of the most competitive races in Texas, I’ve ranked contests by the threat to each incumbent, to the incumbent party, or just by the level of interest and heat they’re generating. It’s a mix of competitive heat, drama and interest.

Incumbents are noted in the chart, as are changes and adds from the previous week’s list. Here’s a big, fat disclaimer: This is a conversation-starter — not the last word on anything. It doesn’t include contests with mind-bending numbers of candidates (thinking fondly of the 18 Republicans on the ballot in the 21st Congressional District). And it will be revised and adjusted weekly as the March 6 primary approaches and new information — and speculation — is available.

The color scheme is familiar to anyone familiar with danger signage. Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Here’s my third list of the 2018 primary season, with a couple of races added and a couple — the reelection bids of Republican state Reps. Matt Schaefer of Tyler and Linda Koops of Dallas — removed from high heat.

Key Competition increased Competition decreased New to Hotlist
hottest
Office
District
Primary
Candidates
Agriculture Commissioner
District
Statewide
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Sid Miller Incumbent
Trey Blocker
Jim Hogan
Senate
District
2
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Bob Hall Incumbent
Cindy Burkett
Senate
District
8
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Phillip Huffines
Angela Paxton
Senate
District
30
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Craig Estes Incumbent
Craig Carter
Pat Fallon
Senate
District
31
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Kel Seliger Incumbent
Mike Canon
Victor Leal
House
District
23
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Wayne Faircloth Incumbent
Mayes Middleton
House
District
46
Primary
Democrat
Candidates
Dawnna Dukes Incumbent
Warren Baker
Sheryl Cole
Ana Cortez
Casey McKinney
Chito Vela
House
District
99
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Charlie Geren Incumbent
Bo French
House
District
134
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Sarah Davis Incumbent
Susanna Dokupil
hotter
Office
District
Primary
Candidates
Land Commissioner
District
Statewide
Primary
Republican
Candidates
George P. Bush Incumbent
Davey Edwards
Jerry Patterson
Rick Range
House
District
2
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Dan Flynn Incumbent
Bryan Slayton
House
District
8
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Cody Harris
Linda Timmerman
Thomas McNutt
House
District
27
Primary
Democrat
Candidates
Ron Reynolds Incumbent
Wilvin Carter
House
District
73
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Kyle Biedermann Incumbent
Dave Campbell
House
District
75
Primary
Democrat
Candidates
Mary Gonzalez Incumbent
MarySue Femath
House
District
98
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Giovanni Capriglione Incumbent
Armin Mizani
House
District
114
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Jason Villalba Incumbent
Lisa Luby Ryan
House
District
116
Primary
Democrat
Candidates
Diana Arévalo Incumbent
Trey Martinez Fischer
hot
Office
District
Primary
Candidates
Senate
District
17
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Joan Huffman Incumbent
Kristin Tassin
House
District
9
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Chris Paddie Incumbent
Garrett Boersma
House
District
18
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Ernest Bailes Incumbent
Emily Kebodeaux Cook
House
District
54
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Scott Cosper Incumbent
Brad Buckley
Larry S. Smith
House
District
55
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Hugh Shine Incumbent
CJ Grisham
Brandon Hall
House
District
60
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Mike Lang Incumbent
Jim Largent
Gregory Risse
House
District
88
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Ken King Incumbent
Richard Beyea
Jason Huddleston
House
District
104
Primary
Democrat
Candidates
Roberto Alonzo Incumbent
Jessica Gonzalez
House
District
122
Primary
Republican
Candidates
Lyle Larson Incumbent
Chris Fails

Disclosure: